Winter Holiday FAQs – By the 2020 vacation season NRF

By the 2020 vacation season, NRF expects online and other in-store sales included in the total to increase from 20 percent to 30 percent to $202.5 billion to $218 billion. 4 billion, up from $168.7 billion last year. The figures, which do not include car dealerships, service stations and restaurants, contrast with an increase from 4 percent to $729.1 billion last year and an average increase of 3.5 percent in holiday sales over the past five years. Overall, Christmas sales in November and December have accounted for an average of about 19% of annual retail sales over the past five years, but for some retailers the figure could be higher. The National Retail Federation predicts that Christmas sales in November and December will increase from 3.6 percent to 5.2 percent in 2019, totaling $755.3 billion and $766. billion. Generally, NRF includes retail sales – excluding auto dealerships, gas stations and restaurants – between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 to determine holiday sales. Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include in-store and online purchases in a wide range of retail categories, including discount stores, department stores, grocery stores and specialty stores, but exclude purchases at car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants. Given the ongoing impact of this year’s VIDOC-19 pandemic, retailers are stocking up and launching seasonal promotions and offers early this holiday season to help consumers store safely and early to avoid the last-minute stress of long lines and delayed deliveries. Consumers have shown that they are responsive. This year’s vacation shopping season is expected to extend into the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the extended shopping period. Some companies are opting to close on Thanksgiving, others are offering Black Friday for several months, and others are offering the same in-store and online deals throughout the holiday season to allow consumers to spread out their purchases. E-commerce accounted for 20.9 percent of total vacation sales in 2019. Online and other offline sales increased during the pandemic, and retailers expect to get a larger share of their sales from e-commerce this year. In addition, vacation sales may be more profitable because the increase in purchases is not accompanied by a significant increase in retailers’ fixed costs. Some of the contracts may have been pushed back to October because many retailers held holiday sales earlier than in the past. A survey conducted by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics in November found that 42% of holiday shoppers indicated they purchased earlier than usual. Meanwhile, Prosper Insights & Analytics is conducting a survey for NRF based on what consumers say they want to do during their vacations, including how much they plan to spend on specific vacation items. Each year, about 40 percent of consumers start shopping for Halloween.